Yesterday All My Troubles Seemed so Far Away . . . A Day on Coll, Scotland

Saturday 9^th July Light S - AM Dull, misty, drizzle

7:30AM - I am sitting on the ferry that takes one to the wonderful Hebridean island of Coll, which lies north west of Mull. The trip takes just under three hours and hence I have some time on my hands to take stock of the year list situation.

Now for non birders the following may be of less interest than previous blog entries but I am trying to give everyone a perspective of the planning that goes into the route and itinerary. Also one may like to look and assess my chances of beating the present UK Green record, currently at 289 and of beating the magic 300. As for the European record held by Ponc Feliu at 304, well have a look, read the text and consider whether I will beat it.

My Green Year list stands at 262 and that is twenty five ahead of this time last year. Whether this lead will be maintained and lead to a new European Green year list record will depend on how many birds that I saw in the final six months of 2015 I see again this year. Those birds were:-

American golden plover

Arctic warbler

Balearic shearwater

Barnacle goose

Barred warbler

Bean goose

Bluethroat

Blyth's reed warbler

Capercaillie

Chestnut bunting

Citril finch

Citrine wagtail

Common rosefinch

Crested tit

Eastern subalpine warbler

Honey buzzard

Iceland gull

King eider

Lanceolated warbler

Lesser yellowlegs

Laughing gull

Little auk

Little bunting

Night heron

Olive backed pipit

Ortolan bunting

Osprey

Pallas' grasshopper warbler

Pallid harrier

Pomarine skua

Ptarmigan

Radde's warbler

Red-breasted flycatcher

Red-flanked bluetail

Ring-necked duck

Rock dove

Siberian rubythroat

Sooty shearwater

Spotted crake

Storm petrel

Subalpine warbler – Moltoni

Twite

White-rumped sandpiper

Wood warbler

Wryneck

Yellow-browed warbler

The photographs are of the birds I saw last year.

Chances of seeing all of these are very slim. Citril finch, Chestnut bunting and Moltoni's warbler are once in a blue moon birds. Others should be added easily; rock dove today on Coll for instance.

Then there are the ones where I feel I have had their equivalent bird already; Franklin's gull is on the list this year replacing laughing gull. Purple heron for night heron and greater yellowlegs for lesser. Still time for these birds to turn up, hopefully.

With the rest of July being spent going to Speyside and the Abernethy Forest, as well as seawatching for the two rare ducks near to Aberdeen, King eider and the white-winged scoter; I should add osprey, crested tit, ptarmigan and capercaillie. The scoter would be the first lifer for me this year, that is a bird I have never seen before. In fact I am not sure of my British life list, around 460 I think. I must update it someday.

Now as well as the forty six birds mentioned above there are a couple of ones that I missed last year that may surprise some. Waxwing, how could I miss waxwing? That classic, superbly beautiful winter visitor which occasionally reaches the UK in large numbers. Didn't see one. The photographs of Tommy Hyndeman's son, Henry holding either an apple with a waxwing on it, or a stick with number of them on it taunts me to see them this year.

I was surprised I didn't see a pectoral sandpiper. A gimme I thought. Didn't see one.

With the month of August being spent on North Ronaldsay there should be the chance for some of the rarer birds seen last year being seen again this; sooty shearwater, storm petrel and barred warbler.

Here is a list, compiled by The Oracle, Phil Andrews, of the rare birds seen on North Ronaldsay over the last few years that would be additions to my list:-

American golden plover

Balearic shearwater

Barred warbler

Black-headed bunting

Blue-winged teal

Bluethroat

Booted warbler

Buff-breasted sandpiper

Citrine wagtail

Common rosefinch

Cory's shearwater

Great shearwater

Honey buzzard

Icterine warbler

Leaches' petrel

Lttle shearwater

Long-tailed skua

Marsh warbler

Ortolan bunting

Pacific golden plover

Pectoral sandpiper

Sabine's gull

Sooty shearwater

Storm petrel

Two-barred crossbill

White-rumped sandpiper

Wood warbler

Wryneck

How many of these will be added to the list by the end of my visit there? The target is for ten of them and anything over that will be a bonus. Anything under will hopefully be caught up by the Setember and October visit to Fair isle and Shetland.

Now for those months I have made some spreadsheets that give percentage probability for each of the rare birds seen there for each month. I have placed this information on the blog before but repeat it here for you to make your own assessment of my chances of seeing my target of ten birds for each month. You may like to make a list guessing which ones I will see.

So from 2005 to 2015, fifty eight different rare birds that I still need for my year list were seen in September with an average of nineteen new birds per year.

In order of percentage probablility from 100% downwards these birds were:-

100%

Yellow-browed warbler

Common rosefinch

91%

Bluethroat

Barred warbler

82%

Little bunting

73%

Sooty shearwater

Mealy redpoll

Citrine wagtail

64%

Red-breasted flycatcher

55%

Barnacle goose

Olive-backed pipit

Lanceolated warbler

Pectoral sandpiper

Wryneck

All of these then have a better than 50:50 chance of me seeing them. It would be a shock notto see yellow-browed warblers this year. Last year I saw at least 111!

Now here are the birds with a less than 50:50 chance of being seen:-

46%

Icterine warbler

Blyth's reed warbler

Arctic warbler

Buff-breasted sandpiper

Wood warbler

Ortolan bunting

37%

Pallas' grasshopper warbler

Short-toed lark

Storm petrel

27%

Paddyfield warbler

Pallid harrier

Honey buzzard

Red-throated pipit

18%

thrush nightingale

Red-flanked bluetail

Pechora pipit

Arctic redpoll

Melodious warbler

Pomarine skua

American golden plover

Western subalpine warbler

Now for the 'once in eleven year' birds:-

Magnolia warbler

River warbler

Eastern olivaceous warbler

Great snipe

Sabine's gull

Baird's sandpiper

White's thrush

Syke's warbler

Swinhoe's petrel

Booted warbler

Spotted crake

Swainson's thrush

Two-barred crossbill

Brown flycatcher

Siberian thrush

Grey-cheeked thrush

Woodchat shrike

Iceland gull

Yellow-breasted bunting

Leaches' petrel

Aquatic warbler

For October, with the years 2011 and 2012 having the data missing, and an average of almost 18 possible year ticks per year, on Fair Isle the birds go like this:-

100%

Yellow-browed warbler

Little bunting

Bluethroat

89%

Sooty shearwater

78%

Little auk

Mealy redpoll

67%

Common rosefinch

Barnacle goose

Olive-backed pipit

Red-breasted flycatcher

Barred warbler

56%

Lanceolated warbler

Waxwing

44%

Short-toed lark

White's thrush

Arctic redpoll

Iceland gull

33%

Blyth's reed warbler

Red-throated pipit

Buff-breasted sandpiper

Red-flanked bluetail

Siberian rubythroat

Pllas' grasshopper warbler

22%

Sabine's gull

Radde's warbler

Rustic bunting

Ortolan bunting

Grey-cheeked thrush

Black-throated thrush

Siberian stonechat

Bean goose

Blyth's pipit

White-rumped sandpiper

Paddyfield warbler

11%

Arctic warbler

River warbler

Osprey

Red-eyed vireo

Blackpoll warbler

Honey buzzard

King eider

Thrush nightingale

Pallas' warbler

Siberian thrush

Citrine wagtail

Subalpine warbler sp.

Pine bunting

Marsh warbler

November will see me moving south through Scotland. Bean geese at the RSPB reserve at Fannyside, near to Falkirk, should be a gimme. Maybe there will be a snow goose with the Pink-foots somewhere close as well.

December will be a case of wherever the bird is I will try to get to it. Maybe the pallid harrier will return to Snettisham, Norfolk. Maybe there will be ring-necked duck or blue-winged teal somewhere.

So there you have it. If you have read all this then I salute you. A page really for the bird fanatic maybe but I hope that you can see how incredible the next few months could be. The list will grow and I feel it that I will easily beat the current UK Green record of 289.

As for the 300 . . . it is going to be close but what a ride!

By the way, the ferry can't dock at Coll due to very thick fog and is carrying on to the next island Tiree. Standing on the aft deck it is sad to see pieces of plastic floating in what sea I can see. Nicer to see manx shearwaters sitting on the water before skittering off into the fog.